Updated 12:00 am Wednesday, November 4
The “Blue Wave” seems more like a ripple at this point. Election results in several states won’t be known tonight and it looks as if the Senate will remain in control of the Republican Party.
I don’t think I’m being overly dramatic when I say the world’s attention on COVID-19 has temporarily abated to watch Americans go to the polls today. There is a feeling that everyone’s fate is tied to the results of this election.
Having said that, I’m optimistic about the election for two reasons. First, you either believe in polling or you don’t. I subscribe to the fact that no poll is perfect but in aggregate they can show trends and the “Blue Wall” states Trump barely won in 2016 (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) have shown a remarkably consistent lead for Biden since the summer. It is true that polls failed to properly represent voters without a college degree in 2016, but I believe reputable polling companies have corrected this oversight and greater scrutiny has been given to these Blue Wall states.
Second, it’s about the compelling demographics. Biden appears to be doing far better than Hillary Clinton with groups like suburban and older voters, putting Trump on the defensive in states he won in 2016 like Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. Additionally, Gen-Z voters are participating in record numbers and 65% of them support Biden.
There is evidence of Trump doing better with Cubans and Venzuelans in southern Florida but little is mentioned about the 850,000+ Puerto Ricans who can vote and mostly live in central Florida or the millions of Mexican-Americans living in states like Arizona and Texas.
I can understand Biden voters being skittish after Trump’s surprise win in 2016 but this ain’t 2016 and Biden is not Clinton. I’ll be the first to admit I could be wrong, but I see a blue wave coming. The only question in my mind is, how big will that wave be and who will be swept away by it?